hi so this is not gonna be one of my regular videos I've been looking a lot
around in san francisco and on the web lately because i'm super interested in
how things are gonna evolve in the future so this is my way of sort of
boiling everything that's happened in the last year down to a good let's go
with 15 minutes yes it will be some hard cuts I'll put a link to everything in
the description just so you can double-check everything and I'm really
not cutting anything in or leaving anything out that I feel is important
you can watch the full videos if you want they're hours long but they're
really really really great enjoy we're living the time where what is possible
is speeding up at such an accelerating rate that it's going to challenge our
sense of stability one of the things that's changing is the cost of things we
talk a lot about the notion that technology is going to cause us to lose
our jobs lose our income the most near-term impact from a technological
standpoint is autonomous cars a fully self-driving cars that's gonna happen
much faster than people realize there are many people who is jobs it is to
drive in fact I think it might be the single largest employer of people is
driving in various forms and so we need to figure out new roles for those people
that will be very disruptive and very quick now I should characterize what I
mean by quick there are over two billion vehicles in the world approaching in
fact approaching two and a half billion cars and trucks and in the world the
total new vehicle production capacity is about a hundred mode which makes sense
because the life of a car or truck before it's finally scrapped is about 20
25 years so the point at which we see full autonomy appear will not be the
point at which there is massive societal upheaval because it will take a long
time to make enough autonomous vehicles to disrupt employment so that that
disruption I'm talking about will take place over about 20 years it's still 20
years is a short period of time to have I think something like 12 to 15 percent
of the workforce be unemployed there is a countervailing force that's going on
right now at the same time which is the D monetization of living I believe we're
rapidly moving towards a world where all of these things that we
use that we need to be alive if you would modulus hierarchy of needs are
very rapidly trending towards zero cost and it's going to change capitalism in a
very fundamental fashion at the end of the day in a world in which technologies
like the replicator exists if we have one of these in engineering we can make
all the spare parts we need the ability to actually create something and have
something where scarcity no longer exists where everything becomes abundant
changes the whole economic sphere of our world one of the technologies that is
taking us in that direction of course is the whole notion of nanotechnology
nanobots and it's extraordinary to see where it can go in the not-too-distant
future like the next 20 years 30 years at the outmost if I have a nano bot and
I ask it to replicate itself 500 times and I give you each one of those
nanobots you then have the ability to create anything you literally want that
is a function of only three things the energy the raw material cost and the
cost the information and so we're living in a world where you can have a Ferrari
a mansion or literally anything for near zero cost we are in effect heading
towards a world where a lot not all things but a lot of them basic things of
life are gonna be at near marginal cost what we're seeing is what I call the six
DS of exponential growth everything is becoming D materialized D monetized and
democratized and as we D materialize things as things go from hardware to
bits and the marginal cost of those replicating those bits is near zero we
end up in a very interesting world the demand for electricity will increase
dramatically so currently in terms of total energy usage in the world it's
about one third electricity about one third transport about one third eating
overtime that will transition to almost a predominantly electricity which means
that the demand for electricity will probably triple so it's going to be very
important to think about how do you make so much more electricity
we're living in a world where we have 8,000 times more energy hitting the
surface of the Earth from the Sun than we consume as a species and as it turns
out the poorest countries in the world are the sunniest countries in the world
an interesting line up there that shouldn't be lost on you and as we look
at this you know 2016 the year that renewables
were cheaper than coal right coal will not ever recover when I look down over
LA I don't see the farms of photovoltaics or the farms of solar
thermals you see rooftops and of course what's interesting is that we're going
to turn all of those areas into solar collecting right this is a kilometer of
solar Road deployed in Normandy and Tesla selling at solar rooftops you saw
these numbers the actual number now that Ramez mentioned at 2.4 cents per
kilowatt hour and of course to have abundant near free energy you need
storage now this is the gigafactory out near reno this is just a cute house from
Desperate Housewives or something what what what on earth is going on here
well this illustrates the picture of the future that I think is how how things
will evolve you've got an electric car in the driveway and then that that house
roof is a solar roof you can adjust the texture and the color a very
fine-grained level when you're looking at the roof from street level or close
the street level but tiles look the same whether there is a solar panel behind it
or solar cell behind it or not if you say the road fast forward to say 15
years from now it will be unusual to have a roof that does not have solar
okay so the the key to the economics of the cars the semi of these houses is the
the falling price of lithium-ion batteries which you've made a huge bet
on as so many ways that's almost the core competency and you just have to
build the world's largest manufacturing plants that double the world supply of
lithium-ion battery yeah is with with with this guy what is this yeah
so that's the gigafactory the progress so far in the gigafactory
and I'm incapable of pretty seem like a hundred it eventually like a hundred
gigawatt hours of yeah batteries a year and we go going else we think probably
more video and they're actually being produced right now already here right
already put up this video yeah I mean just eat it up or that's this that's the
slowed down version that yeah how fast does it actually go well when it's
running at full speed you can't actually see the cells without a strobe light
it's just blur how help us picture this I mean how many Giga factories if you
like does it take to get us there oh it's about a hundred roughly it's not
ten it's not a thousand most likely a hundred you're planning to do a test or
at least another to announce another two this year I think I walk will announce
locations for solar between two and four Giga factories later this year yeah
probably four well the fact that Ilan's prediction that a hundred of these Giga
factories worldwide give us all the storage we need for a fully electric
economy is pretty significant let's look at transportation uh abundance 360 this
year I spent time with Jeff Holden his prediction is that we'll have fully
autonomous ubers on the road within two years
this is pilotless driverless fully autonomous ubers and as part of that
that electric autonomous cars are ten times cheaper than owning a car so
that's a fascinating it's just five times cheaper ten times cheaper all of a
sudden becomes something that if you own a Maserati you're gonna park your car
you're gonna sell your car you're gonna part your car you're not going to use
your car because when you have an autonomous electric car that's that much
cheaper that's that much more convenient it's like you don't use your own most
people don't use their old film camera you put that away you're using your cell
phone so interestingly enough the question is at what point are we gonna
see electric autonomous cars displace the cars on the road because I thought
for the longest time oil gasps was gonna be holding on only
because gas car stuck around for decades at a time but this is a photograph from
New York in 1904 and if you look at this you can spot two cars two automobiles on
the road by 1917 it was a hundred percent switchover right we went from
horse and buggy to automobiles because the value proposition was so much
greater and the question of when that midpoint took place well the Model T
came out in 1908 four years later we crossed the midpoint and so it's
interesting and the prediction right now with you know with Tesla coming out with
Ford and GM coming out with whammo now partnering with Chrysler and with lyft
is that by 2025 car ownership will be dead and what I'd like to do is just
take a second and look at these different fields to look at how they're
being dematerialized and how they're being demonetised so of course in
communications and entertainment we've seen a massive amount here are the
numbers on communications by 2020 to 2025 we're gonna have the explosion of a
number of global networks we've got loon through Google we've got Facebook with
drones and satellites effectively what we're doing over the next you know five
to eight years is bringing five billion new consumers online and they're coming
online not like you and I did okay they're gonna have connectivity but
already gonna have these kinds of devices and at the end of the day my
expectation is they will and most people will have them for free because there's
the cost of these devices get down to 10 bucks or 20 bucks unless you have one I
can't sell you anything so I'm gonna give you one of these devices so that
you can buy things from me or the other thing I might get if I give you one of
these devices is I get to collect the data I get to collect and understand
what you want because data is the new gold machine and robots is taking over
there will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better
is a full-size house being 3d printed in ten hours this is Sebastian Thrun slab
machine learning deep learning protocols that can diagnose dermatological
conditions better than a dermatologist and this is just about six months ago
when Watson was able to diagnose a patient who had a rare form of leukemia
that no physician could diagnose this is the cost of genome sequencing you see
Moore's law and white over there and you see that rapidly falling five times the
rate of Moore's Law for genome sequencing so in 2001 craig Venter
sequence the human genome for a hundred million dollars and a few months ago
Illumina the primary company announced equipment that we'll be sequencing the
human genome for a hundred dollars in two hours any of you ever need surgery
of one question to ask how many times have you done this surgery last week
that's the number one correlation between the success of a surgeon if you
find a surgeons doing ten surgeries per day that's your woman all right that's
the person that you want and so when you find a robot operating system that's
doing thousands of surgeries per day and that robot is seeing your innards in an
infra-red in minut detail and is able to do a surgery perfectly because it's seen
every variation and the cost of that surgery is the cost of electricity and
the capex of that of that robot the cost is going to D monetize to near zero
again and I want to be clear that these these are not things that I think that I
wish would happen these are things somebody things that I think probably
will happen if my assessment is correct and they probably will happen then we
need to say what are we gonna do about it and I think some kind of a universal
basic income is gonna be necessary I don't think we're gonna have a choice
Universal Music Inc a universal basic income I think it's gonna be necessary
so it's mean that unemployed people we BP across that look yeah the output of
goods and services will be extremely high so with automation they will they
will come abundance there will be or almost everything will get very cheap
the harder challenge much harder challenge is how
do people then have meaning like a lot of people that derive the meaning from
their employment there's gonna be psychological impacts to losing my
persona of when I ask you what do you do you tell me your career you tell me your
job so how do we connect people so we have to change the story about who you
are what you stand for what you do but these are these are the challenges we
have to face these are the kinds of conversations we talk about if you're
not needed if there's not a need for your labor how do you what's the meaning
if do you have meaning if you feel useless these are much that's a much
harder problem to deal with yeah it's a lot I know and I think what I take away
from it is that creativity and the feeling of fulfillment for creating
something and contributing to the world will be the sort of most important
things that will be where we derive our new meaning from once we have a
universal basic income and once we sort of leave this whole monetary system way
of thinking about the world it's super messed up though and no one really knows
I mean still really interesting to think about right let me know in the comments
down below when you agree with and what you don't agree with and really hope we
can have some great discussions about this and yeah I'll see you guys next
week take care
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