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so if you look at any market in vet angel you'll see these numbers at the
top and this is the book over round and the book over around will always be
hundreds over a hundred percent on the back side in fact what I should do is
just this is what you would normally see on the back fair screen it will always
be a hundred percent on the back side and always under a hundred percent on
the lay side this number up here represents the chance of any one of
these selections going on to win the race so of course you know we've got a
six run a race here there are six horses one of those horses is going to win the
race so there's certainty that one of those will win and therefore excluding
dead heats of course and therefore the book percentage is at 100% you'll find
the same in football in tennis and so on all of the odds add up to 100% or nearly
100% if the market was perfect then these figures up here would show 100%
but you notice that there's point eight over on this side and point eight under
on this side why is it different well that's the difference in spread between
the back and lay prices so you can see to 46 to 48 3.3 3.4 3.7 3.0 the
difference in spread between those two is creating a difference in spread at
the top of the market and the spread is the difference between one hundred and
one point six minus ninety eight point seven and that's what we call spread the
difference between those two two values so the spreads can be applicable as a
book percentage or it can be applicable on on individual runner so you can see
the spread here is to two percent between 252 and 250 are now see there
can you see the book has slipped temporarily under a hundred percent when
that happens people will go into the market and correct that situation so the
book always hunts 100 percent or as close to 100 percent as possible
to understand how this works if you go to the dutching or the bookmaking area
on betangel you can actually get an understanding of exactly how a book is
constructed so if we go to the dutching area and we click on back you can see
that that's basically saying now you've selected odds of 252 so sing out loud
we've selected the back odds at 252 and that represents 39.7% of the book now if
you click another one the front two in this market
a 66% of the book so what is happening here is the market is saying that it
thinks that the from two runners here have a 66% chance of going on to win the
race and this is where dutching can be particularly beneficial because if
you're betting into a book that's close to 100% and you use more than one
selection then you've got a pretty good chance of picking a winner and you're
not going to lose much money in the spread so let's select the third one you
can see the front three in this market have a ninety seven point one percent
chance of winning this race one of these front three is going to win basically is
what the market is saying and if we continue this process all the way down
then you can see eventually adds up to 100% now a quick way of doing that
you see if you just click on back you can see boom there you go it adds up to
100% but of course you know if if we select the lay price then we'll get
slightly different figures so in fact you could select all of the labor Isis
and you can see that it actually adds up to just under 100 percent so in theory
if you could back the entire book at the current lay price you would make a
little bit of money you'd make a one percent margin but of course you'd have
to wait for those orders to fill and in the process of them filling some of them
they move and so on and so forth so that becomes a bit of an issue but we do have
the options to back at the compact price back at the current low price or back at
an manually nominated price so let's have a look at what happens when you're
back at a nominated price first of all I'm going to reset them to that level
and then we'll have a look and the menu price this will allow you to understand
how a market is formed because if we look at the market and the price of
the favorite starts to drift can you see what happens to the book percentage the
book percentage starts to slip under 100 percent so if this drifts out to odds of
276 this book percentage here is not a state that can exist in the market
arbitrage s will kick in cross-matching will kick in when we're a bit closer to
the off and correct that situation so if the price on something drifts then the
price and something else must be coming in so because the front three in this
market take up one-third oh sorry nearly they did all of the entire market
I was looking at the front three and thinking 3/10 one third anyway because
these three take up the majority of the market if the price and the favorit
drifts and the price and something else must come in so if we start adjusting
the price here you can see if the favorite goes out to 276 then the price
of brother high must come in to around 3:15 or maybe it just comes in to around
three point six and in fact it's something else that comes in a bit to
help push that book percentage up so in the way in which you see this this is
showing you the way that if the odds go out in one direction somewhere then the
odds must change somewhere else and this is the correlation that you see within
the market this is why the market meanders up and down at a variety of
different prices within the market so when you see this that's what's going on
if the book if the price and something on these front three one of these front
three starts to move in one direction another one will have to correct in the
other direction so to be able to account for that and the small of the book is
we're only in what buy there I'm saying this small of the book the number of
runners within the book so this is only a six run erase the stronger that
correlation is if you've got a twenty or thirty run a race there's a weak
correlation there but the smaller the field the more likely that you will see
prices move in opposite directions but by using the dutching and bookmaking tab
you can actually identify and work out what's that possible correlation could
be and what prices needs to be hit at certain points in order for
the price to react somewhere else so let's say that maybe in fact what
happens is that the price on the favorite shortens maybe the price on the
favorite shortens to 225 you can see the books at 109 percent which is
unsustainable we know it hunts one hundred percent so that would mean the
price on these would have to drift so let's push these prices out a bit more
you can see if the price on the favorite comes in two to twenty four you can see
the price and these other twos is going to have to move a fair bit in order to
compensate for that so playing around with this on different markets at
different prices will give you a really good feel for how prices interact when
you look at that in entire markets as opposed to just one individual runner so
probably the simplest way to understand this is to look at a football match
because there are only three outcomes in a football match the book percentage is
going to be quite tight and we can actually examine what would happen at
the start of the match you would make sense to be able to comprehend what's
likely to happen in this match because arsenal are playing away and if they
don't score then the odds on Arsenal will drift and the price and the draw
will come in but of course the price on the draw coming in is what's making
Arsenal drift it's not necessarily the Arsenal they're drifting it's just that
the draw is getting more likely and the chance of national winners getting less
likely now I know from my experience in the markets that the price on this team
I was going to pronounce it I'm not going to attempt to do that will
probably stay about the same will come in if there's no goal so it's the drift
on Arsenal it's taking place and the draw coming in but you can now correlate
exactly what the impact on one would have on the other so let's say when were
five minutes into the match and the draw I sorry the price on Arsenal has drifted
to - what is the price and the draw going to be let's have a look it's going
to be around 365 and if we get a little bit later into the match and Arsenal the
214 what's the price on the draw going to be it will be around 325 and we only
know that because we know that if there's no goal then the price on the
home team isn't gonna if much but of course the draw and the
price on Arsenal is going to have to move in the other direction so around
halftime maybe the draw will come in to about 2.6
so I've just manually over typed that and we can just drift the price on
Arsenal out to understand what price Arsenal would likely be if there was no
goal by halftime they would be out to about 256 and perhaps the price on the
home team has come in slightly because they have had a strong attacking phase
then what you would find is that any movement on then coming in would send
the price on Arsenal out so if they're right they have a lot of shots on target
and so on and so forth then the price and Aston will move just that little bit
more so anyhow hopefully that's given you an overview as to how prices
correlate when you're looking at them not in isolation but it as a percentage
of the entire book
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