Leonid Ivashov, a retired COLONEL-GENERAL and political analyst, urged the two sides,
US & North Korea to reach a diplomatic solution to the tensions, which have been ramped up
in recent days by both the president and the dictator.
Mr Ivashov, in an interview with Russia Today, said Pyongyang's threats of bombing the
US territory of Guam was "a bluff", and that the US could easily blast any North Korean
missiles out of the sky even if it did attack.
And he called for both Russia and China to intervene now and impose further sanctions
on North Korea, in a bid to take the conflict "out of the military perspective".
Discussing the prospect of war between North Korea and the US, Mr Ivashov said: "It's
a total mismatch.
"The US is a superpower, while North Korea is a small regional player.
North Korea can't compete with America on any level."
The US' superior technology meant it could locate all of Kim's weapons factories and
missile sites, Mr Ivashov said, and "eliminate everything that North Korea created in terms
of medium-range and long-range missiles and nuclear production".
Neither would North Korea's anti-missile defenses be any match for the American B-1
bombers, he added.
The former military leader, who today is head of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, admitted
North Korea might be able to inflict "some damage" on the US, but this would pale in
comparison to the havoc wreaked by America's military might.
On North Korean threats towards Guam, Mr Ivashov said: "To some extent, it's a bluff on
the part of North Korea; an attempt to save face and avert the American blow through international
rhetoric."
In this video, Defense Updates breaks down Leonid Ivashov statements and analyses why
North Korea genuinely has no chance against US?
Lets get started.
B-2 Sprit is America's most potent bomber because of its stealth characteristics.
It has a maximum speed of Mach 0.95 and range of 6,900 miles or 11,000 km.
B2 has an excellent payload and capable of carrying nukes, which makes it extremely destructive.
It has 2 internal bays for ordnance and payload with an official limit of 40,000 lb (18,000
kg) and maximum estimated limit of 50,000 lb (23,000 kg).
North Korea has a mix of old Soviet era Surface-to-Air missiles (SAMs), which includes the S-75,
S-125, S-200 and Kvadrat.
All these systems are outdated and represent technology that is 2 to 3 generation older.
Also, these may not be in good working condition.
In addition to them, since early the 2010s North Korea has deployed an indigenous SAM
system, which is called KN-06 by South Korea and the U.S.
The KN-06 is a long-range SAM that bears some resemblance to the Russian S-300 and Chinese
FT-2000 is the most capable North Korean air defense system.
But even this system is not capable of detecting the stealthy B1 Spirit.
North Korea doesn't have different nuke delivery options.
North Korea is dependent on land-based missiles for nuke delivery, as it has no aircraft capable
of carrying nuclear bombs and has no ballistic missile submarines.
It is agreed by most experts that the recently tested HWASONG-14 could reach many US cities,
marking a significant milestone.
But North Korea's missile program has still a long way to go
Every time it launches a missile, a lots of arrangement on ground has to be made and is
not streamlined.
This time span, when a missile is being prepared for a launch is the most vulnerable phase
for a missile.
North Korea is far off from having these missiles properly deployed in underground silos.
North Korea's threats have made sure that the country is under constant surveillance
by radars and satellites of U.S, South Korean & Japan.
All impending launch of missile are detected and can be destroyed in ground itself.
US also has solid intelligence on other military site of North Korea like the airfields through
satellite imagery and will be able to target them with multitude of options at
moments notice.
A missile launched by North Korea will have to deal with multiple missile defense systems
1. The Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System is a United States DOD (Department of Defense)
Missile Defense Agency program developed to provide missile defense against short to intermediate-range
ballistic missiles.
Aegis BMD is designed to intercept ballistic missiles post-boost phase and prior
to reentry.
The Arleigh Burke class of guided missile destroyers is the United States Navy's
first class of destroyer built around the Aegis Combat System
Undisclosed numbers of Arleigh Burke class destroyers are already present in Korean waters.
2. The Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) designed by US is a significant upgrade to
the original system, and dedicated almost entirely to the anti-ballistic missile mission.
Patriot missile battery can have up to 16 launchers, and there are also spare missiles
to re-supply the launchers as missiles are fired.
It has a range of 20 to 30 km. Japan has these system in place and has recently demonstrated
its capabilities .
3. THAAD is designed to shoot down short, medium, and intermediate range ballistic missiles
in their terminal phase.
The system has an operational range of around 200 km with a speed of 8.24 Mach.
It is ideally suited to take out North Korean missiles.
THAAD is deployed in also Guam and South Korea also has THAAD deployed.
4. US mainland is also protected by Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD).
GMD is the United States' anti-ballistic missile system for intercepting incoming warheads
in space, during the midcourse phase of ballistic trajectory flight.
The U.S. military in May conducted a successful, first-ever missile defense test involving
a simulated attack by an intercontinental ballistic missile.
North Korean navy has about 810 vessels, which in theory could seem a threat but in practice
is no more than nuisance.
North Korean navy is considered a brown water navy and operates mainly within the 50 km
exclusion zone.
It has no aircraft carrier or destroyer and has only 3 frigates, which are no match to
the advanced U.S surface combatants.
Large percent of fleet is made up of small patrol vessels.
All of these vessels including the submarines are outdated having technologies of 1950s
On paper the North Korean Air force possesses more than 500 combat capable aircrafts, but
almost all of them are outdated and even includes Chinese derivatives of very old fighters like
Mig 17 and Mig 19.
The MiG-29 is the Korean People's Army Air Force's (KPAF) most modern fighter but it
operates approximately only 40 of these.
North Korea has more than 1.2 million active soldiers, and a further 7.7 million in reserve,
making its ground force one of the largest in the world.
But the troops are mostly ill equipped with outdated weapons of Soviet era.
The country's conventional forces, facing a long slide after the end of the Cold War,
have faced equipment obsolescence and supply shortages.
For example, North Korea has very few tanks based on the 1970s Soviet T-72, and most are
still derivatives of the 1960s-era T-62.
The rest of Pyongyang's armored corps is in a similar predicament, making them distinctly
inferior to U.S. and South Korean forces.
Sustaining a war effort requires massive reserves not only in men, but also in material.
Not only will the relatively poor inventory of ammunition will dwindle down in few weeks
but also will the food supply.
With these two basic items in short supply, the North Korean forces will not be able to
continue fighting for long periods.
It is also foreseen by many experts that as the war turns against North Korea, many will
start deserting the repressive regime, hastening the process of capitulation.
North Korea is cut off from the world and has no allies who will help them.
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