North Korea tested intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) named HWASONG-14 on Friday
that appears to have the range to hit major US cities.
North Korea now has tested this ICBM twice in July and what is most alarming is the fact
that the latest test seems to show that the Hwasong-14 missile can travel even more distance
that previously thought.
Pyongyang's state-run Korean Central News Agency said on Saturday that the test was
designed to show the Hwasong-14's maximum range with a "large-sized heavy nuclear warhead".
It added that Washington should regard the launch as a "grave warning."
In this video, Defense Updates analyzes the latest missile test by North Korea and evaluates its implications.
Lets get started.
A combination of US, South Korean and Japanese analyses of the launch from Mupyong-ni, near
North Korea's border with China, shows the missile flew about 47 minutes, going 3,700
kilometers (2,300 miles) high and for a distance of 1,000 kilometers (621 miles).
According to David Wright, a missile expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists, if the
missile were fired on a flatter, standard trajectory, it would have major US cities
like Los Angeles, Denver and Chicago well within its range, with possibly the ability
to reach as far as New York and Boston.
Kim Dong-yub, a defense analyst at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University
in Seoul said: "Depending on how heavy a warhead it carries,
this latest North Korean missile would easily reach the West Coast of the United States
with a range of 9,000 to 10,000 kilometers," or 5,600 to 6,200 miles.
He added, "With this missile, North Korea leaves no doubt that its missile has a range
that covers most of the United States."
There were indications earlier this week that nuclear-armed North Korea was preparing for
another ballistic missile test.
Some experts had predicted the communist nation would launch the test on Thursday to mark
Victory Day, a military holiday but was delayed one day due to unfavorable weather conditions.
Regardless, the new test represents a setback in efforts to reduce tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
International community and U.S has been trying to compel North Korea to give up its missile
and nuke programs by enforcing sanctions, but these have failed.
China, North Korea's longtime ally, has been pressuring the regime to abandon these programs
but so far has little to show for it.
Experts say North Korea currently is known to have the capability to send missiles to
all of South Korea, Japan, as well as to Guam and the Hwasong-14 is a major step augmenting
its strikes capabilities.
A missile is as destructive as its warhead, which is why North Korea is running missiles
and nuke program in parallel.
In total North Korea has conducted 5 nuclear tests till now.
The first nuke test was conducted by North Korea on Oct. 8, 2006.
As per the United States analysts, it had a yield of less than one kiloton of TNT.
Blasts have become more powerful since then.
The device tested by the North, in January 2016, had a force equivalent of 7 kilotons
of TNT.
By contrast, the device detonated on Sept 2016 looks to have had a force equivalent
of 25 kilotons of TNT, according to the most analysis.
Let us now compare these with other known tests & explosions.
Trinity Test in New Mexico in July 1945, which ushered in the nuclear age, had a yield of 20 kilo tons.
Hiroshima's "Little Boy" bomb had a yield of 13-18 kilo tons whereas Nagasaki's "Fat
Man" bomb had a yield of 20–22 kilo tons of TNT.
As per latest estimates of Institute for Science and International Security in U.S, North Korea
is believed to have 13 to 30 nukes.
So it can be inferred that North Korea currently has a decent nuclear capability in its hand,
and looking at increasing yield of its bombs, it can be said that it will have immense destructive
power at its disposal in coming days.
The ultimate goal is to have ICBM with a range to reach whole of US carrying nuclear warhead.
North Korea now seems to have more or less perfected the missile technology.
US official familiar with the latest intelligence assessment confirmed that North Korea would
have a deployable solution in place by 2018.
This is an acceleration of 2 years from previous estimates that put Pyongyang 3 to 5 years
from fully developing long-range missile capabilities.
Now North Korea may concentrate on miniaturization of nuclear bombs, so that the missiles can
carry the nukes effectively.
It can be said that the US and international community no longer has a ticking clock, but
the time has actually run out.
North Korea has cleared the major technical hurdles and as time goes by they will refine
the systems in term of accuracy, readiness and reliability.
U.S will have to accept the fact that now its mainland can be targeted by North Korea,
which was never the case till now.
North Korean state media was quick to tout the missile test as a success, with video
and stills showing Kim Jong Un overseeing the launch and celebrating with the troops
involved.
Kim is quoted as saying "the whole US mainland" is now within North Korea's reach.
He called Pyongyang's weapons program "a precious asset" that cannot be reversed nor replaced,
according to Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
Hours after that call, the US and South Korean military conducted a live fire exercise as
a show of force in response to the missile test.
Both militaries conducted a similar show of force, after North Korea's first test in early
July.
South Korea said on Saturday it will proceed with the deployment of 4 additional units
of the THAAD anti-missile defense system.
As Trump administration grapple with the situation with no signs of having plans of direct negotiations,
there is no reason to expect a quick breakthrough.
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét