How many Silver Bars are in the LBMA Vaults in London?
Sometime in the coming days, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) plans to begin publishing
gold and silver vault holding totals covering the network of commercial precious vault operators
in London that fall under its remit.
This follows an announcement made by the LBMA on 8 May.
There are seven commercial vault operators (custodians) in the LBMA custodian vault network
namely, HSBC, JP Morgan, Brinks, Malca Amit, ICBC Standard Bank, Loomis (formerly Viamat),
and G4S.
Note that ICBC Standard Bank has a vault which is operated by Brinks on behalf of ICBC Standard.
It is also quite possible that some of the HSBC vaults, such as the famous GLD gold vault,
are located within Brinks facilities.
Adding in the Bank of England gold vaults under the Bank of England's head office
in the City of London, the LBMA vaulting network comprises eight sets of vaults.
However, the Bank of England vaults do not store silver, or at least there is no evidence
that the Bank of England stores silver.
However, the other 7 vault operators can and do store silver, or at least most of them
do.
It's unclear whether the G4S vault stores anything on behalf of anyone, but that's
a different story.
The forthcoming LBMA vault data will represent actual physical gold and silver holdings,
i.e. real tangible precious metals, as opposed to the intangible and gargantuan paper gold
and paper silver trading volumes generated each day in the London precious metals markets.
The LBMA will report physical holdings data on an aggregated basis for each of gold and
silver, i.e. one quantity number will be reported each month for vaulted gold, and one quantity
number will be reported each month for vaulted silver.
The LBMA data will be on a 3-month lagged basis.
For example, if the LBMA begins reporting this data in early July (which it probably
will), then the first set of data will refer to the end of March period.
The uncertainty as to when the LBMA will begin to publish its vault holdings data is purely
because the LBMA has not provided a specific publication commencement date.
At first, the LBMA announced that the reporting would begin "in the summer".
Subsequently, it announced that it's vault reporting would begin in July.
As to whether the LBMA vault holdings numbers published each month will include or exclude
the Bank of England gold vaults holdings is also unclear.
At the end of April, the Bank of England went ahead and separately began to publish vault
holdings numbers for its own gold vaults, also on a 3-month lagged basis.
More information on this Bank of England initiative can be read in BullionStar blog "Bank of
England releases new data on its gold vault holdings"
Incidentally, the Bank of England has now updated its website (updated 30 June) with
the gold holdings figure for its vaults as of the end of March, and is reporting total
physical gold holdings of 163.36 million troy ounces, which equates to 5081 tonnes of gold.
When the LBMA begins to publish its numbers, it will be clear as to whether the LBMA gold
number includes the Bank of England gold holdings or not, and this will probably even be specified
in a footnote of the report.
Excluding the Bank of England vaults (or at least the non-loaned gold in the Bank of England
vaults which is not under the title of bullion banks), the remaining lion's share of the
LBMA's gold holdings number comprises gold held by Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in London.
In early May, in the article "Summer of 17: LBMA Confirms Upcoming Publication of
London Gold Vault Holdings", I calculated that these gold-backed ETFs which store their
gold in the LBMA vaults in London accounted for 1510 tonnes of gold.
Specifically:
"The HSBC vault in London holds gold on behalf of the SPDR Gold Trust (currently 853
tonnes) and ETF Securities (about 215 tonnes).
The JP Morgan gold vault in London holds gold on behalf of ETFs run by iShares (about 210
tonnes in London), Deutsche Bank (95 tonnes), and Source (100 tonnes).
An ABSA ETF holds about 36 tonnes of gold with Brinks in London.
In total, these ETFs represent about 1510 tonnes of gold."
The approach used to calculate the gold stored by these ETFs in the London vaults can be
seen in the article "Tracking the gold held in London: An update on ETF and BoE holdings".
To this 1510 tonnes gold figure we can add gold held on behalf of customers of BullionVault
and GoldMoney – which is roughly 12 tonnes of gold between them (4.75 tonnes for GoldMoney,
and 7.2 tonnes of gold for BullionVault).
When the LBMA publishes its first gold total for gold held in its vault network, it will
also be clear as to whether the LBMA vaults hold any significant amount of physical gold
above and beyond the gold allocated within the gold-backed ETFs.
There may be some gold tonnage held on an allocated basis by the LBMA bullion banks
as a 'float', and also some gold held in allocated form by various institutional
investors such as hedge funds, but my hunch is that this residual gold will be at most
a respectable fraction of the amount of gold stored on behalf of ETFs in London.
However, the silver holdings in the LBMA vault network are a different kettle of fish entirely,
and in addition to ETF holdings (which are reported), there could be significant silver
holdings in the London vaults which have gone unreported up until now (unreported silver
in the form of what consultancy GFMS calls 'Custodian Vault' holdings).
Reported Silver
Although gold usually generates the most headlines, it's important not to forget about silver,
and the fact that this new LBMA reporting will also provide a monthly aggregated total
for the amount of physical silver held in the LBMA vaulting network in London.
The silver stored in these LBMA vaults is in the form of variable weight London Good
Delivery silver bars.
The recommended weight range for a Good Delivery silver bar is between 900 troy ozs and 1100
troy ozs, however, these bars will often weigh in the region of about 1000 troy ounces each.
The minimum purity of a London Good Delivery silver bars is 99.9% pure silver.
For example, on the BullionStar website there is a Heraeus 0.999 silver bar weighing 947.75
troy ounces.
This Heraeus silver bar is an example of a Good Delivery silver bar.
Since silver has a lower value to weight ratio than gold and is bulkier to store, silver
a) takes up more room and b) can be stored in secure warehouses rather than ultra-high
secure vaults that are used to store gold.
This is particularly true in expensive cities such as London where it is more economical
to store silver in locations with lower commercial rental values.
In the LBMA vaulting network, London Good Delivery silver bars are stored 30 bars per
pallet, i.e. a formation of 10 bars stacked 3 bars high.
Since each bar weighs approximately 1000 oz, each pallet will weigh about 30,000 ozs, i.e.
each pallet would weigh about 1 tonne.
At this stage, can we arrive at an estimate of the minimum amount of silver currently
held in the LBMA London vaulting network?
The answer is yes, for the simple reason that, in a similar manner to gold-backed ETFs, a
substantial number of silver-backed ETFs also hold their silver in the vaults of London-based
precious metals vaulting custodians, and these ETFs publicly report their silver bar holdings.
In addition, BullionVault and GoldMoney (which are not ETFs), both hold silver with one of
the custodians in the LBMA vaulting network – Loomis.
But I have included the BullionVault and GoldMoney silver totals below purely because even though
they are non-ETF custodian vault holdings, both companies' silver holdings are publicly
reported on their websites.
However, there is probably also a lot more additional silver held in the London vaults
above and beyond the silver bars allocated to ETFs and the known silver stored by GoldMoney
and BullionVault.
Some of this additional silver falls under what Thomson Reuters GFMS classify as 'Custodian
Vault' silver, which is silver that is basically in an 'Unreported' category but which
Thomson Reuters GFMS seems to think it knows about through its own 'proprietary surveys'
and 'field research'.
This 'Custodian Vault' silver probably accounts for a substantial amount of silver
in the London vaults.
However, it is difficult to know because GFMS does not provide granularity on its numbers
beyond an overall 'Europe' number.
But I have made some assumptions about this 'Custodian Vault' silver in London, which
is discussed in a final section below.
Silver ETFs
For the silver-backed ETFs, the first step is to identify which silver ETFs hold silver
bars in the LBMA vaults in London.
Using the list of silver ETF providers specified on Nick Laird's GoldChartsRUs website (subscription
only), the platform providers and their ETFs which hold silver in the LBMA vaults in London
are as follows:
iShares: 1 ETF ETF Securities: 6 ETFs
SOURCE : 1 ETF Deutsche Bank: 3 ETFs
Between them, these four providers offer 11 ETFs that hold some or all of their silver
in LBMA London vaults.
This silver is held with custodians JP Morgan and HSBC, and with sub-custodians, Brinks
and Malca Amit.
Note, that GoldMoney and BullionVault store silver in London with Loomis as custodian.
As publicly traded vehicles, most of these ETFs publish daily silver bar weight lists
or holdings files and they also undergo twice yearly physical audits by independent auditors.
These weight lists and audits documents are helpful in pinpointing who the custodians
and sub-custodians are, which locations these silver ETF's store their silver in, and
how much silver (in silver bar form) is stored in each location.
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
The iShares Silver Trust, ticker code SLV, is the world's largest silver-backed ETF.
It's probably best to think of SLV as the silver equivalent of the mammoth SPDR Gold
Trust (GLD).
The custodian for SLV is JP Morgan Chase Bank (London Branch), and Brinks also acts as a
sub-custodian for SLV.
SLV holds silver in vaults across both London and New York.
According to the SLV daily silver bar weight list, SLV's silver bars are held in two
Brinks vaults in London, one JP Morgan vault in London, and one JP Morgan vault in New
York.
As of 29 June 2017, SLV reported that it was holding 348,841 Good Delivery silver bars
containing a total of 339.89 million troy ounces of silver, or a colossal 10,572 tonnes
of silver.
The actual SLV bar list, which is uploaded to a JP Morgan website in pdf format using
the same filename each day, can be seen here, but be warned that the file is about 5370
pages long, so there's no real need to open it unless you are curious.
The SLV weight list specifies that the SLV silver is held in a 'Brinks London' vault,
a 'Brinks London C' vault, a 'JPM London V' vault, and a 'JPM New York' vault.
Between them, 2 Brinks vaults in London hold 55% of SLV's silver bars representing 5753
tonnes, or 54% of the silver held in SLV.
Adding in the 'JPM London V' vault means that 289,053 silver bars, weighing 8720 tonnes
(or 82% of SLV's entire silver holdings) are held in LBMA London vaults.
The auditor for SLV is Inspectorate.
Interestingly, the latest Inspectorate letter for SLV, for record date 10 February 2017,
does not make a distinction between the 2 Brinks vaults in London and just reports that
SLV's silver is in:
"Three vaults located in and around London and New York:
- two vaults owned and operated by JP Morgan Chase Bank N.A. with 124,054 bars
- one vault owned and operated by Brinks, as a sub-custodian for JP Morgan Chase Bank
N.A. with 220,066 bars
This would suggest that Inspectorate does not see the need to distinguish between the
"Brinks London" vault and the "Brinks London C" vault, presumably because both
Brinks vaults are in the same building in the Brinks facility (which is beside Heathrow
Airport).
Even though the official custodian for SLV is JP Morgan Chase Bank N.A., London Branch
(see original SLV Custodian Agreement filed April 2006 here), since it's launch in 2006
SLV has at different times used quite a diverse group of sub-custodian vaults as well as at
least 3 JP Morgan vaults.
For example, over the 3 year period from early 2010 to early 2013, SLV stored silver in the
following vaults:
Johnston Matthey, Royston Brinks London
Brinks London A Brinks London C
Viamat (now known as Loomis) JP Morgan London A
JP Morgan London V JP Morgan New York
Royston is about 50 miles north of central London.
Given that there are Brinks vaults in London named 'Brinks London', 'Brinks London
A', and 'Brinks London C', this would most likely imply that there is or was also
a 'Brinks London B' vault, which, for whatever reason, doesn't show up in any
ETF custodian documentation.
The naming convention of the JP Morgan vaults in London as 'JPM London A' and 'JPM
London V' is also interesting.
SLV silver started being taken out of the 'JPM London A' vault in February 2012,
and this vault was depleted of 100 million ounces of SLV silver (~ 3100 tonnes) by October
2012 (blue line in above chart).
At the same time, the SLV silver inventory in the 'Brinks London' vault ramped up
by 100 million ounces of SLV silver also between February 2012 and October 2012.
JPM London A could be JP Morgan's original vault in the City of London.
This would then make the JPM London V vault a separate location.
My pet theory (pet rock theory) is that the V in the 'JPM London V' could refer to
Viamat International, which is now known as Loomis.
JP Morgan could have outsourced storage of silver to Viamat by ring-fencing some vault
space.
JP Morgan could then call this space a JP Morgan vault, even though it would be physically
within a location managed by one of the security storage / transport providers.
I now think on balance that HSBC probably took the same approach with its gold vault
and has it located in a Brinks facility, but that it calls it a HSBC vault.
This could also mean that HSBC uses Brinks to store silver, while referring to it as
HSBC storage.
As to whether HSBC and JP Morgan store gold at the Bank of England while labelling it
as a HSBC or JP Morgan storage area is another interesting question, but is beyond the scope
of discussion here.
Note, there is also an iShares Silver Bullion Fund known as SVR which uses Scotia Mocatta
as a custodian, which as of 29 June held 2,154 silver bars, however, SVR mostly holds its
silver bars mostly in Toronto with Scotia, with a small number of silver bars stored
with Scotia in New York.
SVR therefore does not store any silver bars in London.
See latest SVR weight list here.
ETF Securities – 6 ETFs
Keeping track of all the silver-backed ETFs offered by ETF Securities is challenging to
say the least, but in the below discussion I've tried to devise a system which will
make things at least a little clearer.
ETF Securities operates 6 ETFs which hold physical silver bars that are stored in the
LBMA precious metals vaulting network in London.
Of these 6 ETFS, 3 of them hold silver bars and nothing else.
The other 3 ETFs are precious metals baskets which hold 'physical' gold, silver, platinum
and palladium.
Two of these ETFs are domiciled in the UK, 2 are domiciled in Australia, and the other
2 are domiciled in the US.
In each of the UK, Australia and the US, ETF Securities offers 1 silver ETF and 1 precious
metals basket ETF.
It's most convenient to refer to the codes of these ETFs when discussing them.
The 2 UK domiciled ETFs, with codes PHAG (silver) and PHPM (precious metals basket), are positioned
under a company called ETFS Metal Securities Limited (MSL).
The 2 ETFs domiciled in Australia, with codes PMAG (silver) and PMPM (precious metals basket),
fall under a company called ETFS Metal Securities Australia Limited (MSAL).
The final 2, which are US domiciled, are known as SILV (silver) and GLTR (precious metals
basket).
ETFS Metal Securities Limited (MSL) – PHAG and PHPM
ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG) has a primary listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE)
and trades in USD.
It's NAV is also in USD.
The custodian for PHAG is HSBC Bank Plc, with a listed vault location of London.
Note: There is also another variant of PHAG called PHSP.
It's the same security as PHAG (same ISIN) but its trades in GBP (and its NAV is calculated
in GBP).
Its best to ignore PHSP as it's literally the same fund.
ETFS Physical PM Basket (PHPM) is a precious metals Basket ETF that also holds gold, platinum,
and palladium, in addition to silver.
The custodian is HSBC Bank Plc with a vault location in London.
There is also a GBP variant of PHPM called PHPP.
Again, just ignore PHPP in this analysis.
ETFS Metal Securities Limited (MSL) officially reports all of its precious metals holdings
in the same report (which it reports on each trading day).
Since PHAG and PHPM are part of MSL, PHAG and PHPM silver bar holdings are reported
together.
According to the MSL weight list, as of 30 June 2017, MSL held 62,427 London Good delivery
silver bars containing 60,280,155 troy ounces of silver (1875 tonnes).
The individual ETFs within MSL also report their own holdings.
However, there is a slight mismatch between dates on the individual fund pages and the
date in the MSL spreadsheet with PHAG and PHPM reporting 29 June, while MSL has reported
30 June.
It's not a big deal though.
As of 29 June, PHAG held 58,777,148 troy ozs of silver (1828.2 tonnes) and PHPM held 1,480,037
troy ozs of silver (46 tonnes), which together is 60,257,185 troy ounces of silver (1874.25
tonnes), which is very close to the MSL reported number.
Overall, PHAG holds 97.5% of the silver that is held in MSL, and PHPM only holds about
2.5% of the silver held in MSL.
Now, here's the crux.
While MSL uses HSBC Bank Plc in London as custodian for its silver, HSBC also uses Malca
Amit London as sub-custodian, and the Malca Amit vault holds more than twice the amount
of MSL silver (i.e. predominantly PHAG silver) than the HSBC vault.
MSL's reported silver holding are distributed as per the following table:
MSL holds 62,427 London Good Delivery silver bars in LBMA vaults in London, containing
60.28 million ounces of silver (1875 tonnes of silver).
The Malca Amit vault stores 42,917 of these bars (1283 tonnes), and a HSBC vault stores
another 19,510 silver bars (592 tonnes).
Inspectorate is also the independent auditor for the silver held by MSL.
According to the latest Inspectorate audit letter, dated 3 March 2017 but referring to
an end audit date of 31 December 2016, the silver in MSL was held in the vaults of HSBC
Bank plc, London and at the vaults of Malca-Amit London.
ETFS Metal Secs.
Australia Ltd (MSAL) – PMAG & PMPM
ETFS Physical Silver (PMAG), domiciled in Australia, is an ETF which only holds silver,
and holds this silver in London with custodian HSBC Bank plc at a vault location in London.
Note: ETF Securities officially refers to PMAG as ETPMAG.
ETFS Physical PM basket (PMPM) is a precious metals Basket ETF that also holds gold, platinum,
and palladium, in addition to silver.
The custodian of PMPM is HSBC Bank plc with a vault location in London.
Note: ETF Securities officially refers to PMPM as ETPMPM.
In a similar way to UK domiciled MSL, MSAL (the ETFS Australian company) reports on all
of its precious metals holdings in one daily spreadsheet including the silver in PMAG and
PMPM.
As of 30 June 2017, MSAL held 2754 silver bars in a HSBC vault in London, containing
2,664,690 troy ounces of silver (82.88 tonnes of silver).
Of the 2,664,690 ounces of silver held by MSAL, over 98%, or 2617,229 ounces, is held
by PMAG, with less than 2% held in PMPM (47,362 ounces).
The actual figures are 98.22% vs 1.78%.
This means that PMAG roughly holds 2705 silver bars, and PMPM holds 49 silver bars.
Inspectorate is, not surprisingly, also the independent auditor for MSAL's metal holdings,
and as per the latest audit letter for record date 31 December 2016, the silver bars audit
location is stated as having been "HSBC Bank plc, London".
ETF Securities US domiciled ETFs: SIVR and GLTR
The final two ETF Securities ETFs which hold silver bars are the ETFS Silver Trust (SIVR),
and the ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust (GLTR).
HSBC bank plc is the custodian of SIVR and JP Morgan is the custodian of GLTR.
However, GLTR also uses Brinks as a sub-custodian.
The latest silver bar weight list spreadsheet for the ETFS Silver Trust (SIVR), dated 29
June, which is titled "HSBC US Silver Bar List", states that the SIVR Trust holds
21,437 silver bars containing 20,363,315 troy ozs of silver (633.4 tonnes of silver).
There is no mention of SIVR holding any of its silver with a sub-custodian.
The latest independent audit report for SIRV, by Inspectorate, for an audit reference date
of 31 December 2016, states that the audit took place "at the vault of HSBC Bank plc,
London (the "Custodian")", where Inspectorate found "20,108 London Good Delivery Silver
Bars with a weight of 19,171,492.300 troy ounces."
The latest silver bar weight list for the ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust (GLTR),
also dated 29 June, and which is titled "JPM Precious Metals Basket Bar List", states
that the GLTR Trust holds 5,670 silver bars containing 5,496,035 ozs of silver (~ 171
tonnes of silver).
However, while 85% of these bars (144.5 tones of silver) are stored in the 'JP Morgan
V' vault, 15% of the silver bars (26.5 tonnes of silver) are stored in a 'Brinks 2'
vault.
So according to GLTR naming convention, as there is a 'Brinks 2′ vault, presumably
when it was first named, there was also a 'Brinks 1′.
'Brinks 2′ could possibly be referring to the same location as the 'Brinks London
A' vault.
Inspectorate is also the independent auditor for the precious metals held by GLTR.
In the latest Inspectorate audit letter for GLTR, with an audit reference date of 31 December
2016, Inspectorate states that its audit was only conducted "at the vault of J.P. Morgan
Chase N.A, London (the "Custodian")" where it counted "4,873 London Good Delivery
Silver Bars".
This probably means that GLTR's holdings of silver bars in the 'Brinks 2′ vault
are quite recent, i.e. they have been acquired since 31 December 2016.
SOURCE – Physical Silver P-ETC
A silver-backed ETF offered by the ETF provider 'SOURCE', which is named the Physical
Silver P-ETC, holds its silver bars in a London vault of custodian JP Morgan.
The SOURCE ETF platform was originally established in 2008 as a joint venture between Goldman
Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch.
The latest silver bar weight list for the Physical Silver P-ETC (dated 23 June) states
that it holds 3,129,326 troy ounces of silver (97.34 tonnes of silver).
The list does not state an exact bar count, but looking at the weight list, there are
about 3,237 silver bars listed.
Inspectorate is also the independent auditor for the Physical silver P-ETC.
The latest Inspectorate audit letter, conducted on 4 January 2017, states that at that time,
this ETF held 2,048 silver bars containing 1,982,343 troy ounces of silver.
This is interesting because about a week ago, this SOURCE Physical silver P-ETC held about
4 million ozs of silver.
Now it holds 3.1 million ounces of silver, and at the start of the year it held under
2 million ounces of silver.
So the quantity of silver held in this SOURCE silver ETF fluctuates quite dramatically.
Deutsche Bank ETFs
There are 3 ETCs listed on the Exchange Traded Commodity (ETC) section of the Deutsche Asset
Management website which hold physical silver in London.
These 3 ETCs are as follows:
db Physical Silver ETC db Physical Silver ETC (EUR)
db Physical Silver Euro hedged ETC The Factsheets for these 3 Deutsche ETCs all
list the custodian as "Deutsche Bank", but list the sub-custodian as "JP Morgan
Chase Bank".
For example, the Factsheet for the db Physical Silver ETC states
"Custodian/Sub-custodian: Deutsche Bank AG/JP Morgan Chase Bank N.A."
Shockingly, there do not seem to be any recent independent audit documents for any of these
Deutsche ETCs anywhere on the Deutsche Asset Management website.
The latest 'Inventory Audit' document in the 'Download Center' of the website
is dated November 2012.
That audit document can be viewed here.
The old audit document stated that on 25 September 2012, 'DB ETC Plc' held 13,314 silver
bars containing 13,040,194.3 troy ounces of silver (405.6 tonnes of silver), and that
the audit was conducted at 'Custodian and Location' of 'JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A.
London'.
I have scanned the entire website and there is no sign of any other audit documents or
any silver bar weight list.
The initial metal entitlement for units issued in each of these 3 ETCs was 10 troy ounces
per unit.
The latest units issued figures from Deutsche (dated 22 June 2017) for these ETCs is as
follows:
db Physical Silver ETC: 277, 500 units issued db Physical Silver ETC (EUR): 533,000 units
issued db Physical Silver Euro hedged ETC: 878,000
units issued Total units issued for silver-backed db ETCs
= 1,688,500 units This would mean that in total, these 3 ETCs
would have had an initial metal entitlement of 16,885,000 troy ounces of silver.
However, due to what looks like operational fees being offset against the metal in these
ETCs (i.e. selling silver to pay fund expenses), the effective metal entitlement for each of
the 3 ETCs is now stated on the Deutsche website as being less than 10 troy ounces.
For db Physical Silver ETC, the entitlement is 9.6841 ounces.
For db Physical Silver ETC, the entitlement is 9.6930 ounces and for db Physical Silver
Euro hedged ETC the metal entitlement is a very low 7.9893 ounces.
Therefore, the amount of silver backing these ETCs looks to be (277500 * 9.6841) + (533000
* 9.693) + (878000 * 7.9893) = 14,868,312 troy ounces = 462.5 tonnes.
Since there is no bar count, an approximate bar count assuming each bar weighs 1000 oz
would be 14,870 Good Delivery silver bars.
Since there are no audit reports and no silver bar weight list for these ETCs, it's difficult
to know if real allocated silver in the form of London Good Delivery silver bars is backing
these Deutsche Bank db ETCs, let alone trying to figure how many silver bars are in a JP
Morgan vault in London backing these Deutsche products.
We can therefore use 462.5 tonne for Deutche but with a caveat that there is no current
silver bar weight lists or independent audit documents.
Total ETF Silver held in London LBMA Vaults
Adding up the silver held in the 11 ETFs profiled above yields the following table.
In total, the 11 ETFs hold approximately 12,041 tonnes of silver (387.2 million troy ounces)
across 4 vault operators.
Brinks vaults hold 48% of the total, and JP Morgan vaults hold another 30%.
HSBC and Malca Amit hold about 11% each of the remainder.
ETF Silver Holdings – Tonnes, for Silver stored in London LBMA Vaults
In terms of London Good Delivery silver bars, these 11 ETFs hold approximately 400,000 of
these silver bars.
Since the 3 Deutsche ETFs (ETCs) don't have an available bar list, I converted the assumed
troy ounce holdings to bar totals by assuming each bar held weighs 1000 ozs.
Brinks stores over 191,000 of these Good delivery silver bars.
That equates to nearly 6,400 pallets with 30 silver bars per pallet.
If the pallets were stacked 6 high, and arranged in a square, that would be an area 32 pallets
long by about 33 pallets wide.
In addition, Brinks may also store silver on behalf of HSBC, or even on behalf of JP
Morgan.
Who knows?
BullionVault
According to the latest numbers on the BullionVault website (Daily Audit), BullionVault has 349,939.57
kgs of silver stored in London.
That equates to 11,250,557 troy ozs of silver, or 350 tonnes of silver.
This silver is stored in the form of London Good Delivery Silver Bars.
According to the BullionVault website, BullionVault use Loomis as a custodian for storing silver
bars in London:
"The London (UK) vault is run on our behalf by Loomis International"
Those with a BullionVault login can go in and view BullionVault's latest silver bar
weight list which has been generated by Loomis, but BullionVault don't allow this list to
be published externally.
Suffice to say, the latest list, dated 11 May, lists 11,544 silver bars which are stored
across nearly 400 pallets.
GoldMoney
The GoldMoney website has a real-time audit page which currently states that GoldMoney
has 202,057.614 kgs of silver.
That equates to 6,496,153 troy ozs of silver, or 202 tonnes of silver stored in London.
This silver is also stored with Loomis.
At least some of this silver and probably a lot of it is in the form of London Good
Delivery silver bars.
Without being able to log in to the site properly, it's not possible to see a bar list.
So between them, BullionVault and GoldMoney have 550 tonnes of silver stored in Loomis
vaults in London.
My guess is that Loomis (formerly Viamat) store precious metals in a warehouse in Shepperton
Business Park, Govett Avenue, Shepperton, a warehouse which is in the corner of the
business park, beside the railway track.
Adding this 550 tonnes of silver to the 12040 tonnes of silver held by the 11 ETFs above
gives a figure of 12,590 tonnes.
Let's call it 12,600 tonnes.
This is then the lower bound on the amount of physical silver in the LBMA vaults in London.
Thomson Reuters GFMS – "Custodian Vault" silver
On its 'Silver Supply' web page, the Silver Institute website has an interesting data
table titled "Identifiable Above-Ground Silver Bullion Stocks" which lists 5 categories
of above-ground silver stocks, namely 'Custodian vaults', 'ETPs', 'Exchanges', 'Government',
and 'Industry'.
What's notable and striking about this table is that the 'Custodian Vaults' category
for 2016 amounts to a very large 1571.2 million troy ounces of silver (50,440 tonnes), and
also the fact that this 'Custodian vaults' category is distinct from silver held in 'Exchanges'
(such as COMEX and TOCOM) and ETPs / ETFs (such as the ETF products discussed above).
The 'Custodian Vaults' category also does not include 'Government' stockpiles or
'Industry' inventories.
The actual table and the data in the table are sourced from the Thomson Reuters GFMS
"World Silver Survey" 2017 edition.
As you will see below, this 'Custodian Category' refers to holdings of silver which are not
reported, but which are stored in custodian vaults, including in the London vaults.
This category therefore needs to be examined in the context of the LBMA's imminent reporting
of silver holdings in the LBMA London vaulting system.
You can also see from the above table that this 2016 Custodian Vaults figure of 1571.2
million ozs (50,440 tonnes) grew from a 2008 total of 615.6 million ozs (19,148 tonnes),
so in eight years has risen more than 250%.
On pages 37-38 of this GFMS World Silver Survey 2017 (pdf – large file), GFMS makes some
very interesting assertions.
GFMS starts by defining what it calls Identifiable silver bullion stocks.
It states:
'Identifiable bullion stocks can be split into two categories: unreported GFMS stock
estimates that are based on confidential surveys and field research; [and secondly] stocks
that are reported.
"Unreported stocks include the lion's share of our government category and our custodian
vault category."
"Reported inventories are predominantly held in ETPs..but also include some of the
government and industry stockpiles."
However, in the accompanying commentary to the above table, GFMS classifies all ETP,
Exchange and Industry holdings as "Reported", and all Custodian Vaults and Government holdings
as "Unreported".
Therefore, it is useful to regroup the 2016 figures from the above table into a Reported
category and an Unreported category, as the GFMS commentary then makes more sense.
A regrouped table of the 2016 data is as follows, and illustrates that 'Custodian Vault'
holdings of silver (none of which are reported) account for a whopping 61% of all above ground
silver: A GFMS bar chart in the 2017 World Silver
Survey also underscores the dominant position of these (unreported) 'Custodian Vault'
holdings: GFMS goes on to say that in 2016 "Reported
stocks were 36% of identifiable stocks".
Conversely, we can see that 'Unreported' silver stocks (Custodian Vaults and Government)
were 64% of identifiable stocks.
GFMS says that for 2016 "71% of reported stocks were ETPs", the rest being Exchange
and Industry classifications.
Exchanges refers to silver held in warehouses of COMEX (NY), TOCOM (Japan) and the SGE and
SHFE (China).
COMEX is currently reporting 209 million ouzs of silver in its approved warehouses in New
York, of which 172 million ozs in Eligible and 37 million ozs is in the Registered category.
Interesting, but on a side note, GFMS also states in its 2017 silver report that as regards
COMEX silver inventories:
"Eligible stocks reported by COMEX contain a portion that is allocated to ETPs".
"At the end of 2016, the portion of COMEX Eligible stocks that was allocated to ETPs
was around 16% of total COMEX eligible stocks."
This will probably be an eye opener for those interested in COMEX silver warehouse stocks.
Addressing 'Custodian Vault' stocks of silver, GFMS says that Europe's share of
Custodian Vault stocks was 488.7 million ozs (15,201 tonnes) in 2016 and accounted for
31% of total Custodian Vault stocks.
Asian 'Custodian Vault' stocks of silver were just over 50% of the total with the remainder
in North America (Canada and US).
But what do these 'Custodian Vault' stocks of silver refer to?
GFMS does not provide a detailed answer, but merely mentions a number of examples, which
themselves vary by region.
For Asia GFMS says "the bulk of these stocks are located in China, and reflects stocks
held in vaults at banks", and also " other parts of Asia, such as Singapore, have been
increasing in popularity for storage of bars and coins in recent years", while in India
"global bullion banks increasingly seeking this location as a strategic point for silver
vaulting in case the need arises."
There are also silver "stocks in Japan".
From a BullionStar perspective, we certainly are aware that there is a lot of silver bullion
in vault storage in Singapore, so the GFMS statement is accurate here.
In North America, GFMS attributes the "growth in silver custodian vaulted stocks not allocated
to ETPs" to a "drop in coin sales in North America last year".
In the 2016 edition of the World Silver Survey, GFMS said that the growth in custodian vault
holdings was partially due to "the reallocation by some North American investors from their
ETP holdings" [into custodian holdings].
Turning to Europe, GFMS says that the growth in Custodian vault silver holdings "can
be attributed to increased institutional investor interest".
Therefore, according to GFMS, institutional investors in Europe are buying silver and
holding real physical silver in Custodian vaults.
With 488.7 million ozs (15,201 tonnes) of silver held in Europe in 'Custodian vaults'
that is not reported anywhere, at least some of this silver must be held in London, which
is one of the world's largest financial centers and the world's highest trading
volume silver market.
GFMS states:
"Custodian vault stock data excludes ETP Holdings, but it is important to note that
most custodians of ETP silver stocks also store silver in vaults that are not allocated
to ETPs. the same is true of futures exchange warehouses."
So how much of this 15,201 tonnes of 'Custodian Vaults' silver that is said to be in Europe
is actually in London vaults?
Apart from London, there would presumably also be significant physical silver holdings
vaulted in Switzerland and to a lessor extent in countries such as Germany, the Netherlands
and maybe Austria etc.
So whats's a suitable percentage for London?
Given London's extensive vaulting network and prominence as a hedge fund and institutional
investment centre, a 40-50% share of the European 'custodian vault' silver holdings would
not be unrealistic, with the other big percentage probably vaulted in Switzerland.
This would therefore put previously 'Unreported' silver holdings in the London vaults at between
6080 tonnes and 7600 tonnes (or an additional 182,000 to 230,000 Good Delivery Silver bars).
Adding this range of 6080 – 7600 tonnes to the 12,040 tonne figure that the 11 ETFs
above hold, gives a total figure of 18,120 – 19,640 tonnes of silver stored in the
LBMA vaults in London (545,000 – 585,000 Good Delivery silver bars).
Note, BullionVault and GoldMoney silver is technically part of the 'Custodian Vault'
figure, so can't be counted twice.
ps: In its 2017 World Silver Survey, GFMS also states that in total, ETPs (ETFs) held
664.8 million ounces of silver "with 75% of the total custodian vaulted stocks [that
were] allocated to ETPs held in Europe and 24% in North America.
Asia makes up the balance of less than 1%.".
This would mean that 498.6 million ounces of ETF silver was vaulted in Europe.
Above, I accounted for 387.1 million ounces of this silver within 11 ETFs that is stored
in London.
That only leaves 111.5 million ounces of silver held in other ETFs in Europe that is not stored
in London.
There are 3 Swiss Silver ETFs that store their silver in Switzerland.
These are ZKB (with 74.9 million ozs), Julius Baer (with 13.7 million ozs) and UBS (with
5.89 million ozs), giving a total of 94.49 million ozs of silver.
This then leaves a residual 17 million ozs of silver (530 tonnes) that GFMS says is in
'ETPs' and is stored somewhere in Europe.
What this 17 million ozs refers to, I'm not sure.
Conclusion
When the LBMA finally manages to publish its first report on the silver and gold stored
in the LBMA vaults in London in the coming days, we will have a clearer picture of how
much physical silver is actually in these mysterious and opaque vaults.
A lower bound based on ETF holdings and BullionVault and GoldMoney holdings would be about 12600
tonnes of silver.
A higher bound that also reflects 'Custodian Vault' holdings could be in the region of
18120 – 19640 tonnes of silver.
There would probably also be some LBMA bullion bank float, which may or may not be included
in 'Custodian Vault' figures, that could push the silver total to over 20,000 tonnes
or more.
The LBMA perennially claims that it wants to bring transparency to the London precious
metals market.
This has been a very hollow mantra for a long time now.
However, while some of the LBMA members may want this transparency, others, possibly some
of the powerful bullion banks or their clients, certainly don't want transparency.
Take a case in point.
At the Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference (APPMC) in Singapore in early June, the LBMA
CEO in a speech to the conference talked about the difficulty of even getting a press release
out about the upcoming publication of gold and silver vault holdings data.
She said (fast forward to 8:37 in the below video):
"It was actually a huge achievement just to get the press release out."
For what is supposed to be a mature and efficient financial marketplace, this is a truly bizarre
occurrence, and it must be pretty obvious that some of the vested interests in the London
gold and silver markets needed to be dragged kicking and screaming over the finish line
as regards being in any way open about how much gold and silver is actually in these
LBMA London vaults.
But now, according to the LBMA CEO in the same part of her speech, even so-called "credible
investors" (as opposed to uncredible investors?) also "find it a little odd that as a marketplace,
there's no data", which may explain the vampires within the LBMA being dragged into
the daylight.
Hopefully with the above analysis and the upcoming aggregated LBMA silver vaulting numbers,
these "credible investors" (and the hundreds of millions of other silver investors around
the world) will now be less in the dark about the amount of silver in the London LBMA vaulting
network, and have better information with which to make investment decisions when buying
silver and selling silver.
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