>> BOBBY COATS: Thank you for joining us today.
As you have questions, please use the Q&A box.
In today's webinar Nathan Childs, agricultural economist in USDA's Economic Research Service
will be discussing current projections of higher US.
rice prices, U.S. rice supplies are expected to be tight -- they are expected to tighten
during the 2017/ 18 marketing period.
Following Nathan's presentation, Dr. Jarrod Hardke, Arkansas rice extension agronomist
will provide an Arkansas crop update.
It's a pleasure for us to be with you.
I'm Bobby Coats a professor in the Department of agricultural economics and agribusiness
in the University of Arkansas System's Division of Agriculture now USDA's Nathan Childs on
"U.S. Rice Supplies Expected to Tighten in 2017/18 marketing period; U.S.
Prices Projected Higher" There are a number of analysts domestically
and globally that analyze the rice market Dr. Childs name and his work are recognized
and respected by everyone throughout the world who are in the business of mastering and understanding
rice situation and outlook.
Nathan, we certainly look forward to your rice outlook presentation.
>> NATHAN CHILDS: Thank you, Bobby, delighted to be here.
It's been a little while since I've given a webinar so this will be quite interesting
to present some new material.
We're going to start out, though, with the global rice market, '17-18 global rice market
which as you know would probably include a period of probably 18 months at least because
the crop years are quite different in each country but we'll look at '17-18 and note
that the U.S. grows about 15% of global rice.
So the global market is very critical to the rice market.
Global production is expected down slightly.
Not much.
A year ago was a record.
But it's down just 250,000 tons.
Not much.
About 481.5 million tons on a mill basis The harvested area is at a record It's up about
350,000 hectares from a year ago.
And most of that is due to Thailand and Sri Lanka.
Sri Lanka had severe weather problems last year.
Thailand has been recovering of two years of droughts.
We have record area but not record production despite smaller world crop, crop is down just
a little hardly even a rounding error almost 600 million tons so the largest supplies on
record and I'll show you charts on each of these up about 2.6 million tons from a year
ago that's total supplies crop down slightly.
Here is a chart, I'll just show you, this is sort of where we are.
It's about00 million tons on a rough basis -- 600 million tons on a rough basis it's
hardly larger but it is larger than a year ago we dropped a little we had El Nino problems
in '16--- '15 and 16 dropped production we had quite a lot of stocks at the turn of the
century supplies came down and have been slowly building up ever since so we have about a
record supply.
Not quite a record crop.
Production about the same as a year ago.
Down just a little bit Look at the decreases in production, largest
production declines I'll give you several countries Egypt not a huge producer but major
exporter of medium-grain rice that's down about 17% that's due to contraction of area,
tight water supplies, more restrictions on area also alternative crops more profitable.
U.S. I think we've already mentioned that earlier.
In the introduction about it's a trying year for Arkansas U.S. has crops down about 10%
this is on a metric ton basis.
A big drop in U.S. production All driven by area.
India, that looks like a lot but it's not much.
It's just a normal yield It should be down about a half million tons it's still a bumper
crop.
South Korea down area and yield.
Area has been dropping in South Korea for well over two decades.
Madagascar bad weather drought in one region, flooding in another, crop down.
I hit it twice.
Japan down continued area decline that's probably been more than 30 years.
Indonesia down slightly on smaller area but not much.
Brazil, the Brazil's crop is projected higher in '17-18 but we believe the area will be
-- I said that wrong.
The crop is down but the area is expected slightly higher it will be a better second
crop and some pastureland might go to more rice land in Brazil but we view a more normal
yield last year's yield was abnormally high.
Burma down a little a normal yield no change in area.
Cuba, drought, weather problems in the Caribbean down around 63,000 tons.
Almost 15%.
The Caribbean has difficulty with hurricanes and weather and drought.
Not particularly good rice-growing area.
Looking at some increases in production, Sri Lanka, recovery, it's a record crop in Sri
Lanka, big recovery.
It had drought and flooding last year.
One crop was impacted badly by drought the other flooding poor crop but Sri Lanka bounces
back.
Thailand recovering a second year of recovery from severe drought Thailand the world's No.
1 or 2 exporting country and a large producer China, it's up, it's just -- it's a record.
But by a tiny bit That's a minor increase.
It looks like a lot But China is the largest grower in the world.
It's just a tiny increase.
More due to rounding.
Paraguay.
Paraguay is a record.
Paraguay has tripled production in the last three years.
Ten years ago I would not put Paraguay's production.
But it's up 28% It had a poor crop last year.
It's been on a decade expansion.
All of the expansion virtually is going into exports.
Guyana.
Up 23%.
It's a record.
Guyana has also made tremendous increases in the last few years in production and pushing
its exports out both are South American exporters.
Colombia recovering somewhat.
Not really an exporter.
A market for U.S rice.
Bangladesh, just a rounding it's just a record by a tiny bit.
Almost all due to yield.
Pakistan, up a little bit.
Pakistan has been very stable in recent years.
A major exporter.
Not as large as India or Thailand.
About the size of the US.
Cote d'Ivoire, Cote d'Ivoire production is up Cote d'Ivoire is like Paraguay.
It's virtually tripled production in the last decade or less.
Lots of increases in production.
Some economic rationale.
Why is the U.S. crop down?
Just a big drop in harvested area.
And that does not include the flood damage.
Any of the real late April but it was mostly May well through into middle early May does
not factor in that flooding.
Egypt expected to drop due to -- due to more control on area by the Government conserving
area for other crops some shifting to other crops more normal area, Egypt's area was record
last year '16-17 Philippines expected to reduce area slightly with the end of quantitative
restrictions it's expected Philippines imports will increase so if the imports increase they
won't need to produce as much.
Looking at more economic rationale the opposite is causing an increase Sri Lanka and Thailand
recover from drought and flooding.
Sri Lanka had both last year.
A substantial area expansion.
I think Thailand is up about 400,000 hectares, Sri Lanka, about 225,000.
Big area increases.
High support prices in many Asian countries, especially China and India but not limited
to China and India.
Bring in more production than market forces would indicate
Brazil's area is expected to increase but the crop is expected slightly smaller.
Again, Brazil is the largest non-Asian rice-producing country in the world.
It's about an even exporter and importer.
It virtually nets out.
The crop is actually expected down just a little bit.
Just look at Thailand, I bring this up.
I'm sure many of us it wasn't long Thailand had two years of severe drought, big drop
in area, big drop in production and they have come back almost all the way.
Not quite.
It's still down a little bit.
We're expecting there's adequate water, should be no water restrictions so Thailand should
get just short of a normal crop.
And Thailand has had huge supplies due to it's paddy pledging scheme so has had enough
rice to continue to export.
Domestic use and stocks in the global market at a record consumption.
It's record.
It's up about a little over a million tons from '16-17.
But it's less than production.
So that means stocks are going to build.
India and Thailand account for most of the expected increase in global consumption.
Now, I will tell you on Thailand, that includes the non-food uses of rice.
So Thailand had large stocks of industrial and feed uses of rice.
That counts as use.
India is one that its use can move around more than other countries and likely due to
a large residual component in the production.
Other than that, consumption often in most countries is rather stable.
Maybe moving up around the rate of population growth.
Some exception.
In some countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are moving faster but Thailand that feed and industrial
quality rice does counter for consumption.
-- does count.
In contrast, in '17-18 China down just a little bit and that's being held up by feed industrial
uses, not food use.
Indonesia down a little Japan, South Korea, declining per capita rice
consumption.
And that's for several decades due to higher incomes.
In the US.
section I'll explain but likely due to just the smaller crop.
Those high income Northeast Asia countries have seen decline per capita for well over
20 years probably closer to 30 especially with Japan.
Global ending stocks are up a little.
Not much.
Over a million tons.
But the highest it's '01-02 I'll show a slide right sheer global ending stocks you saw a
small stock building situation not a lot but it is building.
Stocks to use around 25%.
I've always said around 20%.
So what a food grain would need so the stocks it's just enough to keep -- should keep a
lid on prices and prices are rising now we'll look at that.
Global stocks declined in the early 21st Century, mostly due to China.
I think many remember when China came back in the market and also increased their area.
I'll show you a slide but stocks increase again.
Turn of the century, high burdensome stocks kept rice prices as low as they were in the
early 1970s.
But here a small increase in stocks and nonetheless the largest since the beginning -- really
early in the 21st Century.
I like to show this.
It's just China is 60% of global stocks.
It's accounting for not quite but almost all of the increase.
Not quite But almost.
Indonesia is up a little but India.
India is actually down just a little bit.
You can't hardly tell.
Thailand has come off.
They've had huge stocks.
They have come down to more normal levels.
Indonesia is up a little but you really couldn't tell.
It's not up that much just a few hundred thousand tons the rest of the world almost unchanged
but you can see it's China that's driving.
China driving that increase in global ending stocks.
China drove it at the turn of the 20th Century, 20th, 21st Century huge stocks those are the
record for China.
Looking at global trade, we've got trade up a little bit.
It's about 2% up.
42.2 million tons.
Third highest on record.
But I want to note, it remains below the record of 2014 which was a little over 44 million
tons And it's really Nigeria and Indonesia are not importing as much as they were now
as they were in 2014.
We'll see some slides.
But those two account for a lot of the decline -- slight decline in global trade since 2014.
Trade up but not a record.
In 2018, Australia, Burma, Cambodia, China, Egypt, Pakistan, Paraguay and Vietnam are
projected to increase exports.
And I'll tell you, Cambodia is a record.
It should be a record.
Cambodia exported a fair amount of rice well through the '50s and early and mid '60s and
then had a down period of well over 30 years due to political -- severe political problems
But in the last decade or a little more than the last decade, Cambodia has made a real
comeback.
This should be a record.
Burma is not really quite a record But it's returning almost to the level it was in the
late '50s and early '60s.
And these records were really in the '20s and '30s.
Australia is not record but about equivalent to last year.
Paraguay slightly under record because of the bad crop last year.
Vietnam under record.
Pakistan is fairly stable unless it has a weather problem.
Egypt is not a particularly large exporter due to export restrictions.
In contrast Argentina has a weaker crop.
Brazil, we are expecting a weaker crop.
U.S. a weaker crop So they are all expected to export less rice.
Thailand and India around 10 million tons each.
Unchanged from '17 Neither are a record.
But they are still pretty high.
Neither one is a record.
No one else has ever shipped anywhere near that much rice.
Look a little bit more at calendar year trade on the import side China remains No. 1 taking
about 4.8 million tons.
It's taken over 5 million And there are -- there is some border trade that may -- it's unlikely
captured so there could be some more But official trade we've got about 48.
Down about 200,000 tons from this year.
A little bit more than that from record.
The largest importer in the world up.
Actually Indonesia in the 1990s was importing once or twice I think around 6 million tons.
5.8.
But anyway, China is now the largest.
I just put a few more up here Nigeria 2.1.
About the same as last year.
Nowhere near the record The EU is a record.
Philippines not a record high.
But not a record.
El Nino in the mid '90s pushed that over 2 barely.
Cote d'Ivoire is a record.
1.5 million.
Saudi Arabia 1.45.
They are the next largest buyers.
In '18.
Also if I carried it farther I would put Iran, Iraq up there but they are a little bit lower
and I can't list every one Sub-Saharan Africa growing in consumption and trades, EU, Iran,
Iraq, Saudi Arabia count for most of the increase in rice imports of 2018.
Sub-Saharan Africa both production and consumption as well as imports are rising.
It's a strong market.
In fact, Sub-Saharan Africa now has become the large import market for -- largest import
market for rice it's just barely overtaken Asia.
Not by much It's a very close call.
Philippines because of the end of the quantitative restrictions.
EU it may be migration.
Iran has -- Iran and Iraq just cannot achieve self-sufficiency.
Iraq production is quite small compared to consumption.
Saudi Arabia grows no rice.
In contrast, China's imports are down but they are still the largest in the world.
And that's still a lot of rice.
I just thought I would throw -- show this to you.
If you go back 30 years, you only have to go back maybe 25, rice trade was only will
4% of production.
And now it's about 9%.
So global trade has increased faster than consumption or production and it was really
self-sufficiency policies mostly in East Asia but other parts of the world that have opened
up and allowed rice trade to increase and function more as a real market.
In this era had there been a shortfall there wasn't a big market to turn to.
But global trade is much larger now.
Look at some of the exporters, you've got Thailand.
Pretty stable.
India has come down somewhat.
India only merged as a significant exporter in the mid '90s it used to export a little
in about 1995.
Vietnam below record A little -- little ability to increase area in Vietnam and some Government
programs to move land away from rice.
Less mono culture.
Pakistan I mentioned earlier rather stable.
U.S. down just a little but not much.
Not much.
Look at -- I just always like to show these two.
If I was giving this talk 12, 13 years ago I might not even mention them.
But notice in the last 12 or 13 years both Burma and Cambodia have sharply increased
exports.
Burma larger.
It's -- Burma is not a record.
It's up.
Not a record.
This is a close call They actually shipped a little more in the early '60s Not much but
just a little bit.
Cambodia, this is pretty much it.
This is even back to the early '60s they were rarely hardly ever did over a half a million
tons so they have come back from a terrible political crisis several decades to now, you
know, getting well over a million tons.
Getting close to a million and a half.
I just put the two biggest importers.
I think you can see China has been the largest importer in the world since '13.
Dominant.
No one even close.
Nigeria has come down.
Foreign exchange controls, border measures.
Just on moving it across the land.
Consumption has declined with it, as well.
Nigeria talks -- promotes self-sufficiency but it's quite some distance from it but nigh
year I can't has come down still a little over 2 million tons.
Cote d'Ivoire is the fifth largest rice importing country.
Boy, that's a classic increase.
Just every year about around the same amount.
That's Cote d'Ivoire West Africa.
1.5 million tons.
The production has increased, as well.
It's gone up sharply over the last decade I believe more than doubled maybe close to
tripled Saudi Arabia just grows no rice.
EU has grown.
I believe immigration has encouraged it.
Philippines sometimes is in and out a lot depending on their crop.
But it's expected that the quantitative restrictions would end in late June.
So their imports should go up.
Trading prices, trading prices are really rising and that's across the board.
This is May.
May is not over yet so I think this is through the 23rd -- 22nd or 23rd.
And everyone is on the rise.
U.S., Thai, Vietnam.
They are -- Thai Vietnam they are rising lots of factors probably concerns over weather
in the U.S. they are rising.
They have been declining.
They have been declining.
This is maybe '08 that period '07-'08 remember in '08 price strike nowhere near that level
but there has been strengthening in prices.
U.S., take a look at the US.
now.
As much uncertainty due to weather.
That was alluded to.
I don't recall a year where the timing of the just severe flooding, heavy rains in much
of the Delta, especially Arkansas but other parts around that last weekend in April well
into early, middle and beyond into May.
And there's much uncertainty regarding the '17-18 area yield of production due to adverse
weather.
It's also true in California.
But in the south, severe flooding from the end of April.
I believe it was just the last few days through at least the first half of May.
Now, understand there will be a presentation on this.
But there's still perhaps water in many areas.
But I know at least through the first half of May there was much there.
Especially Arkansas, the top-growing state.
And some Delta race was submerged and the full impacts on the area, yield and quality
are unknown at this time.
They were not in the May estimates.
So that was not included.
In California there was a historic rainfall in the Northern California.
Extremely high snowpack.
I think it was almost historically high or extremely high.
And its impact of the flooding from the snowpack was just unknown at this time it could have
reduced area, it could affect yields but it's unknown at this time so both regions.
The June acreage report will provide critical information on the actual '17 plantings.
Some main points.
On March prospective plantings, U.S. rice plantings declined 17%.
2.6 -- 2.6 but I rounded it to 2.63 million acres most of the decline almost all in the
south I think California showed a very tiny decrease.
It was -- Arkansas was the bulk of it.
Mississippi I believe had the largest percentage, a huge drop in Mississippi.
Arkansas down quite a bit I believe well over 300 that's acres Almost all of the decline
was long-grain.
But medium and short-grain came up a little bit Just a little in California.
Came up a little bit in the south.
Not much movement at all.
Huge drop in long-grain plantings.
Average yield is forecasted at a record based on trend by class, 20 years back Did not factor
in flooding.
Production 201 million hundredweights down 10% from '16-17 well if the area is up '17
the crop down 10 that means the yields offset some of the declining area.
Supplies, 7% smaller than a year ago.
Well, it's due to the smaller crop mostly.
Just the crop size has come down.
Domestic use and exports are both projected lower and I'll have a slide on those.
Carryout to drop down 21%.
We had three years of abnormally high ending stocks I'll show a chart still somewhat high
but they have come down some.
Prices are projected higher for both classes of rice.
Not a lot.
But they are projected higher.
And that would be for the California medium-grain, southern medium-grain, southern long-grain.
All projected higher in '17-18.
Just the plantings are down 17%.
We think harvested area down 16% it's just kind of due to rounding.
You can see the planted area, a really sharp drop.
A smaller crop.
Neither historically low we had 2.6 a few years ago but if we went back many, many years,
you would see 2.6 was pretty low.
Crop is down somewhat.
We've had low crops before.
So I only have to go back a few years to find a crop or area that was about as low but it
was a pretty sharp drop.
Pretty sharp drop.
And again, that's before any impact of the flooding.
Record area for US.
rice was back in 1981.
About 3.83 million acres.
Virtual no projection of that area coming back any time certainly within the next -- there's
no projections of any time soon to come back anywhere near that.
The 3.5 in 2010 was the second highest on record.
Some economic factors.
Well, prices for -- at planting this year, say in March, were declining so U.S. long-grain
rough prices were declining.
In fact we do not -- they had been rising in the last few weeks.
The weather is a big factor.
But they were declining.
In contrast, prices for soybeans, the main alternative crop in the Delta, were rising
at the time.
And in March, the U.S. carryout for '16-17 was the highest in more than 30 years.
Now it's not as high now.
We've dropped it a little.
So in the total supplies are still projected the second highest on record.
So when farmers were looking at '17-18 they saw declining long-grain prices, big carryout,
big supplies but not record.
Higher prices for alternative crops.
And the other aspect of supply we don't talk about it a lot is imports.
We see a slight increase in imports.
Imports have not been going up very much recently.
A lot of this movement has been doing brokens if the U.S. crop is small, it doesn't produce
a lot of brokens, broken imports -- brokens are imported.
The Thai rice which is the bulk hasn't been moving around a lot.
It's not quite stable.
But it hasn't been growing If you went back here it was just growing every year.
Well -- much faster than consumption.
Now it's stable to slightly down or more stable.
I just look at U.S. rice supplies.
We've got supplies down.
Not a big change in carryin.
The crop is much smaller.
So much smaller crop pulls U.S. supplies down 7%.
But they are not that different.
It's not -- it's certainly not a record low.
It's down 7% from a pretty high level.
Many of you remember the 2010 crop, a huge crop, massive crop.
Huge supplies.
Huge supplies.
Exports and domestic use are projected smaller.
Not by a huge amount.
The domestic use is down a little.
Exports are expected to drop a little bit.
Not a lot.
Obviously nobody is near record The record U.S. exports I believe were back in '02 when
Brazil came in for a huge amount.
Rough rice.
We're not seeing that.
That used to be what it took to get a record was someone like Brazil to come in for maybe
a half a million tons but a little bit of drop on both.
Back in some economic factors, U.S. exports remember the U.S. exports about half its crop
is so exports are vital to the health of the rice industry smaller supplies especially
for long-grain not as much rice.
Higher U.S. prices for both classes of rice.
Bumper crops in most competing countries, export.
And I mentioned that earlier, not Egypt, Egypt's crop is expected down but Thailand is up quite
a bit, Vietnam is an adequate crop, borderline record, India is down a little but not much.
Burma, Cambodia, Cambodia is up.
They are both up.
But not a lot.
Cambodia actually a record crop.
It's up a record crop So exporters, good crops.
Lack of competitiveness for U.S. rice outside core markets and I'll show you more on that
because while US. exports this year, '16-17 have been strong, most -- almost -- almost
all -- almost all of the shipments are to core markets.
Core markets -- non-core markets haven't come in and I'll show you more on that but not
much competitiveness outside the core markets Long-grain core markets are in the Western
Hemisphere That's mostly not totally rough rice.
Canada and Haiti do take mill rice they don't -- they take almost no rough rice.
Central and South America take rough rice and that's by a pretty big margin so core
grains for that are Western Hemisphere outside of Western Hemisphere Saudi Arabia are a regular
core market for U.S. long-grain rice and a little bit to Sub-Saharan Africa which have
been weak for the last few years.
Medium- short-grain core markets, Northeast Asia, all mill.
The Mediterranean, mostly rough rice.
Outside of this, U.S. exports have not been strong and there's been very little shipments
outside of the core markets.
I just show you some people ask about where does U.S. ship most of its rice well this
is all of its rice.
And these two together are Latin America.
Mexico, the rest are Latin America.
It's about 60%.
About 60% of U.S. rice exports go to Latin America.
Does not count Canada of course.
Does not.
So the Western Hemisphere is larger so that would even be larger but like I said Western
Hemisphere you would add Canada so one can see -- this is the last completed year I didn't
put up a year that's not completed.
But you can see the importance of Mexico, the largest market for U.S. rice in quantity.
Latin America, the largest region.
It's well over half.
A little over half of U.S. exports are within -- are to Latin America.
Again, throw in Canada, it's even higher, the share to the Western Hemisphere.
I just -- this is -- I didn't have room to put the numbers, the numbers, the chart would
not be readable.
But I just want you to see where the U.S. exports to These are last five market years.
They are completed.
Mexico.
Every time Well over 800,000 tons now.
Japan and Haiti typically it's a real close call.
Looks like Haiti is now -- remember the Japan is the WTO purchases, they are not growing
Haiti is growing based on population and demand.
Typically it's going to be a switch between these two.
Haiti is now getting probably closer to 400 -- well over 400,000 tons Japan stays at that
340.
Colombia came in one year real high.
I would not expect that again.
Not beyond their agreed -- their agreements.
It should be around maybe in the high 90,000s, almost 100,000 tons.
Again, Japan.
Canada pretty regular buyer.
Venezuela has been in huge They are 240,000 tons this year.
Not on this chart.
Imagine if Venezuela was not in.
Not a traditional buyer of U.S. rice.
Up until the last maybe seven or eight years.
Turkey typically coming in but sometimes bows out Libya, North Africa medium-grain.
That would not be common for Honduras, Guatemala, they will sometimes make the Top 10.
Iraq has been out.
Iraq was in.
This year Iraq is not quite zero but virtually zero I think maybe 100 tons if that much
South Korea is like Japan, WTO.
It's sort of -- can be a little bit lumpy.
Saudi Arabia around 125,000 tons.
Venezuela has been picking up.
Venezuela is now a huge market.
Well this Year 2 40,000 tons.
But these are the major buyers.
And notice how with the exception of WTO almost all of them are in the Western Hemisphere.
Not quite Occasionally Iraq came in.
But the importance of the Western Hemisphere in the core markets.
Iraq is in and out I would not call that a core market.
It's in and out.
But these are the Top 10 markets and this is the percentage of U.S. trade.
So outside of that, there's not a lot.
This is just looking at rough rice and milled rice.
We can see that the rough rice is coming off of a record.
Central America was an extremely high.
Venezuela is very high.
Libya takes quite a bit of the southern -- medium-grain -- pardon me Turkey takes the southern medium-grain
rough rice.
Turkey takes that.
Libya also buys often southern medium-grain rice.
Milled rice, we're expecting down just a little bit.
Not much outside of core markets.
The prices will be higher.
The exporters have large crops.
We expect the rough down just a little bit as well.
Not a lot.
That's still a lot of rough rice.
Historically to get that much rough rice, Brazil had to come in and no one is projecting
that.
That was 14 -- 15 years ago when Brazil had a bad crop and came in.
Milled, that milled long-grain market.
Outside of core areas, Haiti.
Canada.
Saudi Arabia.
A little bit some markets in Africa.
Not a lot.
Medium-grain core markets are Japan, South Korea, Taiwan.
And those are all WTO.
Looking here long-grain -- by grain type that was by rough or milled.
You can see it's the long rain that we're expecting the biggest decline.
That's about a 1 million hundredweight that's a little bit more as a percent they are not
a whole lot of difference down a little bit in both markets.
Economic rationale, domestic and residual use well we think it's going to be down a
little because there are less post harvest losses smaller crop less losses in transporting
marketing also due to a smaller crop and there's a historic ratio of total supply to domestic
use.
Typically that rice use moves around with total supply.
A lot of that is due to residual component.
However, any impacts on quality and milling rates due to severe flooding are unknown at
this time.
A lower milling rate would boost domestic use.
The reason is it would -- the more rough rice would have to be milled per ton of milled
rice.
So people wouldn't consume anymore.
But more rough rice would have to be milled.
That's unknown at this time.
Currently we are using an average milling rate.
I look at the all rice ending stocks and I said earlier we came off three years of abnormally
high.
Global ending stocks.
High stocks to use ratio.
That's too high.
Coming down, stocks still a little bit high.
But getting closer.
The stocks to use has come down.
As you can see, I would have said that's -- we've had some high stocks to use ratios.
It's a lot of rice.
We have a lot of rice.
That's stocks long-term -- historically we've said around 13 or 14% was a long-term stocks
to use ratio.
Look a little bit around prices for the U.S.
Well, we are projecting higher.
All rice, which of course that's kind of between -- it's either long-grain or medium-short.
But it's always almost typically it's going to be in between.
You can see we're projecting higher prices for both.
Actually the long-grain would be coming up more.
We see that southern long-grain coming up more.
And I'll also show you by -- we have the medium-grain both medium-short-grain broke down by region.
And with California, it's up a little bit.
It's not much.
We're up maybe 20 -- it went from about 13.40 to 13.60.
It's up.
You can't really tell much.
The long-grain is up about $1.
On the midpoint to midpoint.
Around 9.70 to 10.70 this is based without factoring flagged in.
You can see the prices have been dropping Dropping for a while.
Particularly just somehow of an increase.
Tighter supplies.
Again probably it's uncertainty now this is season average but in the futures there's
some uncertainty in the size of that crop.
Look at some economic rationale just tighter U.S. supplies for long-grain rice
Weather concerns.
That's not for the season average.
We did not include that But for cash prices, futures, there are weather concerns.
Larger global trade.
Not a lot.
But some.
And expectations of high -- we expect global trading prices to be a little higher in '17-18.
Not a lot.
Not a lot.
But a little bit.
A little bit higher.
And for more information, please go to our Web site.
Economic Research Service, the rice topics page.
You're absolutely welcome to call me.
I hope this is helpful and I'm certainly available for any questions.
Thank you.
>> BOBBY COATS: Outstanding, as always, Nathan.
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