(upbeat music)
- [Narrator] The NBA season has just started,
and if you think this game is the same as it was last year,
then think again.
Just check some of these scores
getting posted night after night.
The nets are cooking,
the sneakers are squeaking,
and it's time to find out just what has been causing
so much outrageous scoring.
The offensive rating over the years has had
a pretty steady climb upwards,
and we've hit an all time high
with a huge 1.5 point jump over last season.
Of course the skill level
across the board continues to get better,
but where else can we look to explain
why teams have been just binging on their baskets.
The first thing we can look at is pace.
Teams have been increasing the number of possessions
and when we compare pace numbers,
this 4.5 bump is staggering.
That equates to on average nine more possessions
in a game with which to get shots up.
What I found interesting was that the three fastest teams
in terms of pace are nowhere near the top
of the list for offensive rating,
so increasing possessions doesn't mean
you get more efficient.
Ever since the invention of the game,
coaches have tried to get their teams
to get on out on the break and run.
And it made sense since there's more opportunities
to beat the defense down the court
and create open and thereby easier shots.
It looks like this year more teams finally got the memo,
as fast break frequency is up,
and the scoreboards have been ringing ever since.
Shots early in the shot clock have continued to climb,
and it's not just on the break.
Teams are starting their offenses sooner
and jacking up threes off of all manner
of quick pin down screens
or pick and rolls out top.
More teams have started emulating
the Warriors motion offense,
which in turn was emulating the Spurs offense,
and one staple is setting one
or two weak side pin down screens
to free up a shooter for the three.
What is interesting is despite squeezing off
more quick threes,
the three point shooting percentage has gone down
slightly since last year.
And that is with an uptick in open three pointers as well.
If the open three point frequency stays at this level,
then expect the overall three point percentage to rise,
hence more scoring.
Very early two point shots have also increased,
another benefit of the increased pace.
However I would expect teams to improve
in their transition defense as the season wears on,
and that either the frequency or efficiency
or both of quick two point shots will go down.
Another important development this season
has been a rule change.
No it's not the 14 second shot clock reset
after an offensive rebound.
The real effect of this rule tends only
to be seen at the end of a close game
when a team gets an offensive rebound,
which is not very often.
But what should occur often is you getting down
to an NBA game this season to get
in on all the high-paced action.
And there's no better way to get tickets
to a game than by using this SeatGeek app.
It scours the internet for the best prices.
Grades them for you so you know
if you're getting a good deal,
and it can even show you the vantage point from the seats.
Best of all, you can save 20 bucks off
your first purchase if you use my code BBALL.
So what are you waiting for?
Don't miss Giannis leading the Bucks to the top of the East,
and the Nuggets and Pelicans shredding the basketball nets
in the West while also saving money
and getting great deals with SeatGeek.
The rule change that has had a direct effect
on the rise of scoring is the new emphasis
on player freedom.
No longer can defenders bump and grind
as much as they used to,
as the referees have been calling this a lot tighter.
Naturally we see a rise in foul calls per 100 possessions,
and that in turn leads to a higher free throw rate.
Sure an extra couple of free throws here
or there might not move the needle
when looking at the scoring,
but the emphasis has simply made defenders less aggressive,
hence less effective.
The last piece of this puzzle is turnover percentage.
This has also gone down this year mainly due
to getting up more shots more quickly.
What is interesting is that passes per game
are way down this year,
even though there are a lot more possessions.
This is a number we all need to keep our eye on,
because part of the joy
of watching basketball is the team concept,
as the ball gets whipped around
until someone finds an open shot.
The benefits of less passing are less turnovers,
and more shots but there is a sweet spot
where the number of passes yields a high percentage shot
and limits the odds of a turnover.
To give you an idea of how much passing has gone down,
the per game passing average has plummeted
almost 10 a game this year.
And remember, each game has seen an average increase
of 4.5 possessions for each team.
The Warriors are usually at the very top
of the rankings for passing per game,
but this year they've dropped to 18th in the league,
passing the ball almost 34 times less per game
than last year.
Jacking up shots just so you don't turn
it over is not the way you want to run a team
at the NBA level.
So will this surge of scoring sustain itself?
Will teams settle down, run less,
and be a little more patient with the ball?
Will they improve their transition defense
and communication to limit what has been a fountain
of points thus far?
If I had to give an answer,
I'd say the offensive rating will stay
in the vicinity of 110,
but I'm not sure they can keep up this pace.
But if they do count on this season as being ground zero
for when the game truly changed.
Sports fans make sure to hit the subscribe button,
and adjust your settings so you can get notified immediately
when we drop another great NBA video.
Let us know how you feel with a thumbs up and a comment.
After all at BBALLBREAKDOWN,
we're not a channel, we're a conversation, you in?
Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét